Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn’t -- Erica Jong
The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history. The M3 figures – which include a broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by British and European monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance – began shrinking last summer. The pace has since quickened.
The stock of money fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6pc. The assets of institutional money market funds fell at a 37pc rate, the sharpest drop ever. "It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said.
The US authorities have an entirely different explanation for the failure of stimulus measures to gain full traction. They are opting instead for yet further doses of Keynesian spending, despite warnings from the IMF that the gross public debt of the US will reach 97pc of GDP next year and 110pc by 2015.
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Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment
Welcome to the Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment blog. At Crew Capital, investment education is key to how we work with our clients. We hope our conversation and analysis entice you to think further on your investment strategies and planning. For further discussion, please contact us at rjung@crewcapital.com
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
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Crew Capital enters into a new client relationship only after it provides and obtains certain information. In addition, Crew Capital may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Every prospective Crew Capital client is provided with a copy of Crew Capital ’s Privacy Policy, Form ADV Part II and Form ADV Part II Schedule F. Also, the USA Patriot Act, passed in response to the events of September 11, 2001, requires certain financial service providers to request specific information from clients. Accordingly, Crew Capital acts to verify a potential client's identity and makes a risk assessment of their financial and business activities. Lastly, Crew Capital will not provide any investment advice or supervision without a fully executed Investment Advisory Agreement.
As a registered investment adviser, Crew Capital is required by rule to adopt and enforce a code of ethics that establishes the standards of conduct expected of all employees and reflects our fiduciary duties. A copy of Crew Capital’s Ethics Policy will be provided to any client or prospective client upon request.
Nothing on this web site shall be construed as advice to any particular investment need or investor. All references regarding investment or portfolio returns are based on historical data. One should not assume that this performance will continue in the future as past performance or results are not an indication of future performance or results.
Certain portions of Crew Capital’s web site (i.e. books, newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Crew Capital’s (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized advice from Crew Capital or from any other investment professional. Crew Capital is neither an attorney nor accountant, and no portion of the web site content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.
At certain places on this site, live "links" to other Internet addresses may be accessed. Such external Internet addresses contain information created, published, maintained, and otherwise posted by institutions or organizations independent of Crew Capital. Crew Capital does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these external Internet addresses and does not guarantee or assume responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, timeliness, or correct sequencing of information located at such addresses. Use of any information obtained from such addresses is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review of its accuracy, completeness, efficacy, and timeliness. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Crew Capital.
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