Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment

Welcome to the Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment blog. At Crew Capital, investment education is key to how we work with our clients. We hope our conversation and analysis entice you to think further on your investment strategies and planning. For further discussion, please contact us at rjung@crewcapital.com

Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*

*CPA inactve

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Begginnger's Guide to Deflation

Much has been discussed about inflation recently. Mainly because the centeral banks are doing just about everything they can to cause inflation. The beleif being that if the central banks can reflate asset values, consumer will restart spending. Just recall how homeowners were using their homes as ATMs; refinancing their mortgage and cashing out the excess equity. So does it make sense to start this cycle over again? Well that is a discussion for another article. Just remember that we have had 4 decades of credit growth (excess growth mind you) with only 4 years of deleveraging in the developed world. So given the above, I wanted to share an article on a subject matter that is just as important, but with little discussion on the topic - "Deflation". Here is a great article "The Ultimate Beginner's Guide To Deflation". It provides a base knowledge of what deflation is and why it's bad. From a historical standpoint we did experience delation in real life - The Great Depression. This is meant for educational purposes, this is not a prediction.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Roubini States the "Perfect Storm" is unfolding

In May Nouriel Roubini predicted a "perfect storm" scenario: 1) Stalling growth in the US 2) Debt issues in Europe 3) Slowdown in emerging markets, particularly in China 4) Military Conflict in Iran His 2013 perfect storm seems to be hitting right on time. CNBC Article link He is concerned that the Fed has little to no ammunition to alter the impact of the storm. Crew Capital agrees with Nouriel, but has not made any prediction on the final impact of the storm. Other professional, like John Hussman, weekly market comments see a 25% correction.

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