The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 0.6 y/y on a seasonally adjusted (s.a.) basis in February 2010, the first y/y gain since December 2006. However, on a monthly basis, home prices in the 20 metro areas fell 0.1% between January and February 2010, after eight consecutive months of monthly gains. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the 20-city composite index fell for the fifth consecutive month, down 0.8%, following a 0.4% decline in January 2010. Only one of the 20 cities showed a monthly gain in prices in February 2010, compared to a peak of eighteen cities in July 2009, when the first time home buyer tax credit was in full effect. Some analysts assert that the recent stabilization will pave the way to a gradual recovery in home prices in 2010. Others argue that the stabilization is temporary and that further downward correction of home prices is likely once government support to the housing sector is withdrawn, beginning with the phasing out of MBS purchases by Q1 2010 and the expiration of the home buyer tax credit in April 2010. The marginal success of mortgage modification programs and the expiration of foreclosure moratorium also pose the risk of a wave of distressed homes entering the market and pressuring home prices in 2010.
RGE Analysis by Prajakta Bhide and Christian Menegatti: Recent housing data reports are consistent with our predictions for a double dip in home prices. Prices were expected to stabilize temporarily but fall as government support is phased out. Positive data in the run-up to the expiration of the extended home buyer tax credit may push home prices higher over the coming months, but fundamentals indicate that a sustainable pick-up is unlikely. Additionally, vacancies, foreclosure rates and mortgage rates deserve careful attention, as they are expected to exert further downward pressure on struggling prices.
Source: www.roubini.com, Roubini Global Monitor
Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment
Welcome to the Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment blog. At Crew Capital, investment education is key to how we work with our clients. We hope our conversation and analysis entice you to think further on your investment strategies and planning. For further discussion, please contact us at rjung@crewcapital.com
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
Friday, April 30, 2010
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Crew Capital enters into a new client relationship only after it provides and obtains certain information. In addition, Crew Capital may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Every prospective Crew Capital client is provided with a copy of Crew Capital ’s Privacy Policy, Form ADV Part II and Form ADV Part II Schedule F. Also, the USA Patriot Act, passed in response to the events of September 11, 2001, requires certain financial service providers to request specific information from clients. Accordingly, Crew Capital acts to verify a potential client's identity and makes a risk assessment of their financial and business activities. Lastly, Crew Capital will not provide any investment advice or supervision without a fully executed Investment Advisory Agreement.
As a registered investment adviser, Crew Capital is required by rule to adopt and enforce a code of ethics that establishes the standards of conduct expected of all employees and reflects our fiduciary duties. A copy of Crew Capital’s Ethics Policy will be provided to any client or prospective client upon request.
Nothing on this web site shall be construed as advice to any particular investment need or investor. All references regarding investment or portfolio returns are based on historical data. One should not assume that this performance will continue in the future as past performance or results are not an indication of future performance or results.
Certain portions of Crew Capital’s web site (i.e. books, newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Crew Capital’s (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized advice from Crew Capital or from any other investment professional. Crew Capital is neither an attorney nor accountant, and no portion of the web site content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.
At certain places on this site, live "links" to other Internet addresses may be accessed. Such external Internet addresses contain information created, published, maintained, and otherwise posted by institutions or organizations independent of Crew Capital. Crew Capital does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these external Internet addresses and does not guarantee or assume responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, timeliness, or correct sequencing of information located at such addresses. Use of any information obtained from such addresses is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review of its accuracy, completeness, efficacy, and timeliness. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Crew Capital.
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