Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment

Welcome to the Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment blog. At Crew Capital, investment education is key to how we work with our clients. We hope our conversation and analysis entice you to think further on your investment strategies and planning. For further discussion, please contact us at rjung@crewcapital.com

Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*

*CPA inactve

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

A Wild Ride A-coming


Are we in for a wild stock market ride? If the past is any kind of an example - then yes.

From seekingalpha.com

John Mauldin's most recent weekly missive (registration required and highly recommended) contained the following graphic depiction via Ed Easterling of the ups and downs seen in the last secular bear market in stocks during the period from 1966 to 1982.

That gives the nearly 50 percent rally since March a whole new perspective, particularly given the fact that we are only nine years into a cycle that typically runs much longer.

Some parallels to the 1972 peak are cited in the analysis, but a repeat of the 1975 peak would surely disappoint recent stock buyers as well.

CCM Comments:
Well let's look at recent history. On 10/10/2007 the S&P 500 was (1562) from there we declined to (676) on 3/09/2009, a return of -57%. Or what I call "negative compounding". From 3/09/2009 the S&P 500 has increased to (1028) a return of 52%. In less than two years we have experience one "wide ride". If history is any indication of the future then get ready for a more wide rides to come.
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