After a rocky ride during which the VIX Volatility Index shot up toward 80 and has averaged 45 over the past 10 months, the popular measure of market volatility has moved back below 30 (barely) for the first time since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The markets have reacted positively to the monetary and fiscal stimulus plans enacted across the globe. The trend is pointing toward a quiet summer in terms of volatility, but investors would be wise to monitor their portfolios closely. One of the side effects of the numerous stimulus plans is likely to be an increase in pricing pressure over the next two-three years. We think hardasset based sectors such as Energy and Materials may be poised to benefit, as well as the Tech sector, which works to keep productivity high and costs low. We expect to see the VIX volatility index move within a range of 25-35 over the next several months as the market works to conclude that the recent rally is a secular move, not a cyclical swing in a long-term bear market.
I'm not sure I agree with the last sentence. I think this is more of a cyclical (short-term) rally in a secular (long-term) bear. I am very concerned that the US Bank are moving the way of the Japanese Banks in the 90's, which create "Zombie" Banks. For the US to have growth capital MOST be invested, currently the bank are not investing.
Source Argus Research, Market Watch, 6-8-2009
Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment
Welcome to the Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment blog. At Crew Capital, investment education is key to how we work with our clients. We hope our conversation and analysis entice you to think further on your investment strategies and planning. For further discussion, please contact us at rjung@crewcapital.com
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
Monday, June 8, 2009
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Crew Capital enters into a new client relationship only after it provides and obtains certain information. In addition, Crew Capital may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Every prospective Crew Capital client is provided with a copy of Crew Capital ’s Privacy Policy, Form ADV Part II and Form ADV Part II Schedule F. Also, the USA Patriot Act, passed in response to the events of September 11, 2001, requires certain financial service providers to request specific information from clients. Accordingly, Crew Capital acts to verify a potential client's identity and makes a risk assessment of their financial and business activities. Lastly, Crew Capital will not provide any investment advice or supervision without a fully executed Investment Advisory Agreement.
As a registered investment adviser, Crew Capital is required by rule to adopt and enforce a code of ethics that establishes the standards of conduct expected of all employees and reflects our fiduciary duties. A copy of Crew Capital’s Ethics Policy will be provided to any client or prospective client upon request.
Nothing on this web site shall be construed as advice to any particular investment need or investor. All references regarding investment or portfolio returns are based on historical data. One should not assume that this performance will continue in the future as past performance or results are not an indication of future performance or results.
Certain portions of Crew Capital’s web site (i.e. books, newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Crew Capital’s (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized advice from Crew Capital or from any other investment professional. Crew Capital is neither an attorney nor accountant, and no portion of the web site content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.
At certain places on this site, live "links" to other Internet addresses may be accessed. Such external Internet addresses contain information created, published, maintained, and otherwise posted by institutions or organizations independent of Crew Capital. Crew Capital does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these external Internet addresses and does not guarantee or assume responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, timeliness, or correct sequencing of information located at such addresses. Use of any information obtained from such addresses is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review of its accuracy, completeness, efficacy, and timeliness. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Crew Capital.
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