February was a miserable month for investors. The DJIA dropped 11.7% and the S&P 500 fell 11%. The Russell 2000 declined 12.3%. It was the worst February for performance since 1933, and the 43% decline over the past six months is the worst stretch since 1932. Investors have responded by, increasingly, shunning equities. According to several measures of investment sentiment, the few remaining bulls are rapidly vanishing, and the bears are gaining converts. Investment sentiment has not been to these low levels in the past 10 years. Sentiment is, of course, a contrarian indicator. Many analysts have said that the next bull market will only commence once investors have exited stocks altogether. That may be true, but we would also like to see some improvement in the investment fundamentals – economic growth and corporate
profits – before declaring the bear market is over.
According to AAII Sentiment Index the Bears are running about 55% and Bulls a little under 25%. The Bears have increase over the past 2 weeks, with almost all of them coming from the Bull camp. This is usually a sign of a market turning point. It might be different this time. Reasoning - investors are looking for some form of direction and the new administration is not giving them one.
Uncertainty breads a lose in confidence while certainty creates too much confidence.
Buffett's annual letter is out and it is a must read.
Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment
Welcome to the Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment blog. At Crew Capital, investment education is key to how we work with our clients. We hope our conversation and analysis entice you to think further on your investment strategies and planning. For further discussion, please contact us at rjung@crewcapital.com
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
Thank you!
Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*
*CPA inactve
Monday, March 2, 2009
Regulatory Disclosure
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As a registered investment adviser, Crew Capital is required by rule to adopt and enforce a code of ethics that establishes the standards of conduct expected of all employees and reflects our fiduciary duties. A copy of Crew Capital’s Ethics Policy will be provided to any client or prospective client upon request.
Nothing on this web site shall be construed as advice to any particular investment need or investor. All references regarding investment or portfolio returns are based on historical data. One should not assume that this performance will continue in the future as past performance or results are not an indication of future performance or results.
Certain portions of Crew Capital’s web site (i.e. books, newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Crew Capital’s (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized advice from Crew Capital or from any other investment professional. Crew Capital is neither an attorney nor accountant, and no portion of the web site content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.
At certain places on this site, live "links" to other Internet addresses may be accessed. Such external Internet addresses contain information created, published, maintained, and otherwise posted by institutions or organizations independent of Crew Capital. Crew Capital does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these external Internet addresses and does not guarantee or assume responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, timeliness, or correct sequencing of information located at such addresses. Use of any information obtained from such addresses is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review of its accuracy, completeness, efficacy, and timeliness. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Crew Capital.
Crew Capital enters into a new client relationship only after it provides and obtains certain information. In addition, Crew Capital may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Every prospective Crew Capital client is provided with a copy of Crew Capital ’s Privacy Policy, Form ADV Part II and Form ADV Part II Schedule F. Also, the USA Patriot Act, passed in response to the events of September 11, 2001, requires certain financial service providers to request specific information from clients. Accordingly, Crew Capital acts to verify a potential client's identity and makes a risk assessment of their financial and business activities. Lastly, Crew Capital will not provide any investment advice or supervision without a fully executed Investment Advisory Agreement.
As a registered investment adviser, Crew Capital is required by rule to adopt and enforce a code of ethics that establishes the standards of conduct expected of all employees and reflects our fiduciary duties. A copy of Crew Capital’s Ethics Policy will be provided to any client or prospective client upon request.
Nothing on this web site shall be construed as advice to any particular investment need or investor. All references regarding investment or portfolio returns are based on historical data. One should not assume that this performance will continue in the future as past performance or results are not an indication of future performance or results.
Certain portions of Crew Capital’s web site (i.e. books, newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Crew Capital’s (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized advice from Crew Capital or from any other investment professional. Crew Capital is neither an attorney nor accountant, and no portion of the web site content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.
At certain places on this site, live "links" to other Internet addresses may be accessed. Such external Internet addresses contain information created, published, maintained, and otherwise posted by institutions or organizations independent of Crew Capital. Crew Capital does not endorse, approve, certify, or control these external Internet addresses and does not guarantee or assume responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, efficacy, timeliness, or correct sequencing of information located at such addresses. Use of any information obtained from such addresses is voluntary, and reliance on it should only be undertaken after an independent review of its accuracy, completeness, efficacy, and timeliness. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Crew Capital.
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