Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment

Welcome to the Crew Capital Management Thoughts on Investment blog. At Crew Capital, investment education is key to how we work with our clients. We hope our conversation and analysis entice you to think further on your investment strategies and planning. For further discussion, please contact us at rjung@crewcapital.com

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Robert F. Jung, CFA CPA*

*CPA inactve

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Recent Federal Reserve Presidents' Comments

Richmond President focused on inflation more than growth:
Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker said that although economic growth risks persist, he's far more concerned about inflation, compounded by the surge in energy and commodity prices which may or may not be moderating. "For us to lose substantial ground on inflation would be much more costly for us to remedy than for us to have to face a more substantial slowdown in growth than we've seen so far." He said financial markets have weathered economic storms admirably, and believes the Fed's monetary policy is due some credit. "A 2% federal-funds rate with overall inflation running at 4% is an exceptionally low real interest rate -- lower than we've had in the post-war record."

Minneapolis President focused more on growth than inflation:
Minneapolis Fed president Gary Stern said it remains a close call whether the current slowdown will ultimately be defined as a recession. He hopes the Fed will be patient in waiting to hike interest rates, but acknowledged it's not always possible to wait for the economy to heal: "If you wait until you have conclusive evidence, you run the risk of waiting too long. And so the real message is you've got to be willing at some point along the way to say, 'You know, I have enough confidence in my outlook that it is time to go.'"

Who's right? Only time will truly tell. I due believe a little more patience is needed. Housing stability needs to occur before much action by the Fed can take place. I don't believe housing prices have reached their bottom and inventories are too high. As these moderate to the norm, then the focus can shift to inflation. Don't get me wrong, inflation is an issue.

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